"ELI MANNING IS THE KING OF CLUTCH, HERE'S THE PROOF!"

Column by Nicholas Higgins

One graphic that sometimes pops up late in NFL games is "number of game-winning drives," which is implied to be a metric of clutch quarterback ability. However, this figure is meaningless out of context, and raises a number of questions. How many opportunities did the quarterback have to lead a game-winning drive? If the quarterback leads his team on a drive to take the lead with one minute left, and then his defense subsequently surrenders a touchdown, shouldn’t he still get credit for that drive? What if the quarterback leads the team on a long drive to the 5-yard line, only for the kicker to miss the game-winning, chip-shot field goal as time expires?

The purpose of the Adjusted Comeback Efficiency (ACE) Rating is to provide a comprehensive figure for measuring a quarterback’s performance in potential game-winning or game-tying situations. First, the methodology of the ACE rating will be briefly explained. This is followed by an analysis of the results. At the end, the methodology calculations are shown in greater detail for those that are interested.

Basic Methodology
The ACE rating compares a quarterback's outcome in a given situation to the expected or average outcome in that situation. Adjustments were made for four factors: starting field position, time remaining in game, deficit (how many points behind), and outcome (no score, field goal attempt, touchdown). For example:

Quarterback A: after an interception return, he starts at his opponent's 5-yard line down by one point with two minutes to go

Quarterback B: after a kickoff, he starts at his own 20-yard line down by 8 points with 30 seconds to go

Quarterback A has a much easier scenario than Quarterback B. Therefore, the ACE rating gives more credit to Quarterback B for a successful comeback than Quarterback A, and penalizes Quarterback B less than Quarterback A for failure. A touchdown is worth more credit than a field goal in most situations (one exception: overtime). If the offense attempts a field goal, it is irrelevant for the ACE rating whether the kicker makes it or misses it. Instead, the quarterback gets credit based on the average success rate for that distance of field goal, such that a short field goal attempt receives more credit than a long field goal attempt.

There are some more adjustments, but the concept is simple: The ACE rating calculates how efficient a quarterback is in potential comeback situations, taking into account the level of difficulty of the situation.

Quarterback Rankings
This list includes all quarterbacks with at least 30 qualifying drives from 1998 to 2009 (including playoffs). For some quarterbacks, this means that this data set only captures part of their career (e.g. Dan Marino at No. 43 from the last two years of his career, 1998-99). At the bottom, I have listed some noteworthy young quarterbacks that have not yet reached the drive threshold, although caution should be exercised with such thin data. For each player, we also provide the NFL's QB rating for comparison purposes.

Rank QB ACE Drives CBs CB% QBR QBR Rank Rank Diff
1 E.Manning 1.55 66 28 42.4% 79.2 32 31

2 B.Roethlisberger 1.44 78 34 43.6% 91.7 8 6

3 P.Manning 1.40 145 62 42.8% 95.2 4 1

4 P.Rivers 1.36 51 22 43.1% 95.8 2 -2

5 A.Rodgers 1.33 32 13 40.6% 97.2 1 -4

6 M.Schaub 1.33 38 14 36.8% 91.3 9 3
7 J.Cutler 1.32 55 21 38.2% 83.8 20 13
8 T.Green 1.31 105 37 35.2% 86.0 16 8
9 T.Romo 1.31 45 15 33.3% 95.6 3 -6
10 D.Brees 1.31 88 36 40.9% 91.9 7 -3
11 C.Palmer 1.30 76 27 35.5% 87.9 12 1
12 J.Plummer 1.27 108 39 36.1% 74.7 49 37
13 J.Delhomme 1.25 90 32 35.6% 82.1 27 14
14 T.Brady 1.24 85 38 44.7% 93.3 6 -8
15 R.Gannon 1.21 83 27 32.5% 89.8 11 -4
16 D.Culpepper 1.19 85 25 29.4% 87.8 13 -3
17 J.Garcia 1.17 107 35 32.7% 87.5 14 -3
18 A.Brooks 1.12 81 29 35.8% 78.5 36 18
19 V.Testaverde 1.10 70 23 32.9% 78.6 35 16
20 M.Hasselbeck 1.09 101 33 32.7% 83.3 23 3
Rank QB ACE Drives CBs CB% QBR QBR Rank Rank Diff
21 D.Flutie 1.08 66 22 33.3% 78.7 33 12
22 M.Cassel 1.07 34 11 32.4% 79.6 30 8
23 S.McNair 1.06 107 32 29.9% 83.8 20 -3
24 C.Batch 1.05 38 13 34.2% 77.9 38 14
25 D.Garrard 1.04 58 17 29.3% 84.9 19 -6
26 G.Frerotte 1.04 40 11 27.5% 74.6 50 24
27 K.Warner 1.02 95 23 24.2% 93.7 5 -22
28 J.Fiedler 1.02 52 15 28.8% 77.1 39 11
29 C.Pennington 1.01 69 18 26.1% 90.1 10 -19
30 C.Chandler 1.01 36 11 30.6% 80.6 29 -1
31 K.Collins 1.00 124 36 29% 75.7 44 13
32 D.Bledsoe 0.99 125 33 26.4% 78.7 33 1
33 M.Vick 0.97 62 17 27.4% 75.9 43 10
34 M.Bulger 0.96 77 24 31.2% 82.4 25 -9
35 T.Banks 0.96 44 11 25% 73.0 51 16
36 B.Leftwich 0.95 47 14 29.8% 79.6 30 -6
37 M.Brunell 0.94 98 27 27.6% 83.4 22 -15
38 D.Marino 0.94 32 9 28.1% 74.9 48 10
39 D.McNabb 0.94 129 38 29.5% 86.5 15 -24
40 B.Favre 0.93 187 57 30.5% 85.3 18 -22
Rank QB ACE Drives CBs CB% QBR QBR Rank Rank Diff
41 K.Orton 0.92 38 12 31.6% 76.9 40 -1
42 T.Couch 0.92 63 17 27.0% 75.1 47 5
43 B.Johnson 0.91 110 28 25.5% 81.9 28 -15
44 J.Kitna 0.88 107 26 24.3% 76.6 42 -2
45 T.Maddox 0.87 43 11 25.6% 76.7 41 -4
46 B.Griese 0.85 84 22 26.2% 82.7 24 -22
47 R.Grossman 0.84 35 9 25.7% 69.5 58 11
48 D.Carr 0.83 58 18 31.0% 75.2 46 -2
49 S.Beuerlein 0.81 52 11 21.2% 85.6 17 -32
50 J.P.Losman 0.80 34 8 23.5% 75.6 45 -5
51 D.Anderson 0.76 36 8 22.2% 69.7 56 5
52 Q.Carter 0.76 34 8 23.5% 71.7 54 2
53 E.Grbac 0.73 52 11 21.2% 78.2 37 -16
54 J.Campbell 0.72 54 12 22.2% 82.3 26 -28
55 A.Feeley 0.70 33 8 24.2% 69.6 57 2
56 J.Harbaugh 0.70 36 8 22.2% 72.2 53 -3
57 K.Boller 0.66 42 10 23.8% 70.6 55 -2
58 J.Harrington 0.60 50 11 22.0% 69.4 59 1
59 T.Dilfer 0.56 62 10 16.1% 72.8 52 -7
60 A.Smith 0.55 34 6 17.6% 69.2 60 0
Rank QB ACE Drives CBs CB% QBR QBR Rank Rank Diff
X NFL AVERAGE 1.00 5527 1617 29.3% 81.2 X X
X J.Flacco 1.31 26 10 38.5% 84.9 X X
X C.Henne 1.10 17 5 29.4% 75.2 X X
X M.Ryan 1.77 19 10 52.6% 84.3 X X
X M.Sanchez 1.04 12 3 25.0% 63.9 X X
X V.Young 1.15 29 12 41.4% 72.3 X
Note that the league average is exactly 1.00. A comeback is defined as a successful drive (tie the game or take the lead if trailing; take the lead if the game is tied). CB% is comebacks divided by drives. QBR is QB Rating, QBR Rank is their rank by QB Rating, and Rank Difference is the ACE Rating rank minus the QB Rating rank.

The rankings largely conform to what one would expect: Philip Rivers is a great quarterback no matter the situation, and Joey Harrington is not. The notable cases are when a player’s clutch performance (ACE rating ranking) differs greatly from their overall performance (QB Rating ranking). Eli Manning stands out with the top ACE rating in spite of his below-average QB rating. Eli also has a Super Bowl ring -- in fact, the last four Super Bowls have been won by the players with the top three ACE ratings, and Peyton may make it five in a row. The relationship between ACE rating and Super Bowl success will be analyzed further later on in this column.

Jake "the Snake" Plummer has an even larger differential than Eli Manning, matching Plummer’s reputation as a clutch (but mediocre) quarterback. Another Jake (Delhomme) is a surprising player to see ranked 13th, although perhaps this helps explain how an average quarterback reached a Super Bowl in 2003 and the NFC Championship Game in 2005. Bears fans probably would not expect Jay Cutler to finish in the top 10, but should be happy to learn that their franchise quarterback has consistently had an above-average ACE rating every season (even 2009!). It is still early in their careers, but Aaron Rodgers (fifth) and Matt Schaub (sixth) have both had very promising starts.

Among active players, the quarterback with the biggest negative differential between his ACE rating and QB rating is Jason Campbell. He has an average QB rating, but his terrible ACE rating (0.72, 54th) places him in dubious company, including Quincy Carter, Elvis Grbac, and A.J. Feeley. After Campbell, the players with the largest negative differentials are two superstars with reputations for big mistakes in big moments: Donovan McNabb and Brett Favre. McNabb (0.94, 39th) and Favre (0.93, 40th) both have ACE ratings that confirm their below-average performance in clutch situations. The peak of Favre's career (1995-97) is cut off by the 1998 start date for the our data, but with by far the most comeback opportunities (187) of anyone on the list, there are no issues with data credibility for Favre (his personal credibility is a separate debate).

There is one big-name "choker" quarterback whose reputation is cleared by his ACE rating: Tony Romo. While Romo has a lower ACE rating than QB rating, his ACE rank (ninth) is quite respectable and only looks poor in comparison to his superb QB rating rank (third).

There are two other particularly interesting players whose ACE ratings are lower than their QB ratings: Kurt Warner and Tom Brady.

Warner is fifth in QB rating over the past dozen years, but 27th in ACE rating. Warner has had a very unusual career, however, with higher highs and lower lows than the typical player. He had an above-average ACE rating in all of his six best seasons (1999-2001, 2007-09), and he has been fantastic in the playoffs (2.29 ACE Rating in 11 drives, the best of all quarterbacks with at least five drives). Kurt Warner from his glory years (1999-2001) with the Rams would have the fourth-best ACE rating, which is closer to where one would expect him to rank. His career ACE Rating is killed by a stretch of games covering three years from 2002-04 when he failed on 21 consecutive potential comeback drives, the longest streak of any player between 1998 and 2009.

Brady has a very high ACE rating -- 1.24 -- but that still doesn't seem to fit his reputation as the best clutch quarterback of the past decade, and he ranks eight places lower in ACE (14th) than he does in QB rating (6th). Brady’s career ACE rating is dragged down by his uncharacteristically poor 2009 season, when he went 1-for-10 on comebacks and had the first below-average seasonal ACE rating of his career (not counting 2004, when he only had one comeback drive). If 2009 is removed, his ACE rating is 1.32, which would be eighth on the list. Brady has also been in easier comeback situations than other quarterbacks. His average degree of difficulty per drive was the easiest of any player in the top 20 of the ACE rankings. Finally, there's the Adam Vinatieri effect: Every time Vinatieri hit a clutch kick in the playoffs, Brady was measured based on what we would expect from an average field-goal kicker instead. This is how Brady can lead all quarterbacks in actual comeback percentage (45 percent) but rank just 14th in ACE.
Read The rest @ footballoutsiders.com

"IF OSI WANTS OUT, GIANTS SHOULD GO AFTER PEPPERS"

Julius Peppers and the Panthers appear headed for divorce.

Julius Peppers and Rex Ryan would be a match made in heaven. Too bad the Jets, because they made it to the AFC Championship game, won't be able to sign a marquee free agent unless they lost one first.

Because it would require players to have six years of service time -- instead of four -- to become unrestricted players in the imminent uncapped year, Peppers would be far and away the biggest fish in a small pond.

The Giants have talked about the importance of maintaining fiscal responsibility during these perilous economic/NFL times.

There is, however, one scenario that should get Giants president John Mara and co-owner Steve Tisch scurrying for their fishing rods -- if Osi Umenyiora truly wants out.

It doesn't take much to go from pretender to contender in one year in the NFL. The Giants took the first step toward restoring the pride of Big Blue by replacing overmatched defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan with the fiery Perry Fewell. That was a mere appetizer.

Peppers would complete the meal.

Imagine a younger Michael Strahan getting after Tony Romo and Donovan McNabb. Peppers, who is 30 years old, is coming off a 10 ½-sack season.

If Umenyiora, 28, decides he'd love to play for Fewell, if he doesn't demand a trade and is willing to play for $3 million, there would be no need for Peppers.

If Umenyiora thinks he can get a big-money contract elsewhere, then the Giants have to make a play for Peppers.

Remember what former Giants general manager Ernie Accorsi always used to say: Only the franchise quarterback is more valuable than the dynamic pass rusher.

One problem: Peppers has expressed a preference for playing in a 3-4 defense, even if his agent, Carl Carey, predictably indicated recently that he would be open to play in any scheme.

One solution: Show him the money, before the Eagles do. Remember this about an uncapped year: Teams can freely rid themselves of dead (or aging) wood (Rocky Bernard, possibly Kareem McKenzie) without salary cap ramifications.

"If there is no salary cap, we still have a fiscal responsibility," Giants GM Jerry Reese said last month. "We will do what we can do to make the team better, but we'll have some parameters."

The Panthers used the restrictive franchise tag on Peppers a year ago and paid him an NFL-high $18.2 million. But the silence from the Panthers regarding a contract extension this offseason has been deafening to Peppers.

"They're not even talking to me, so why would I come out and say I want to be here, when the team is not even acknowledging the fact that my future with the organization is up in the air?" Peppers told The Herald of Rock Hill, S.C.

Peppers no longer wants a long-term deal to stay in Carolina.

"Last year, at the time, that was the option that I wanted most. But now it's not," he said.

The Panthers have from tomorrow through Feb. 25 to designate Peppers as their franchise player. Peppers would be then be due $20.1 million. They could still decide to trade him.

Peppers has been known to take plays off from time to time, but that's where Fewell's motivational prowess would come into play. And sometimes a change of scenery can do the trick for a player who clearly needs one.

"I'm a man of very few words; I understand very well what silence means," Peppers said in a Charlotte radio interview. "You being silent to me, I understand exactly what you're trying to say. Because of the lack of communication that they've had with us, if somebody asks me, 'Do I want to stay in Carolina and play for the Panthers next year?' It's like, OK, well, how can you say you want to be somewhere if you're not really sure if they want you. Because they're not even talking to you."

Talk to him, Giants.

"We're going to do what we need to do to improve the team," Mara vowed last month. "We're not going to leave any stone unturned."

Remember how the Giants got after Tom Brady in Super Bowl XLII? Assault on the quarterback again, compliments of Julius Peppers.

steve.serby@nypost.com

GIANTS RELEASE ANTONIO PIERCE

Courtesy of The Huffington Post:
EAST RUTHERFORD, N.J. — One of the worst defensive seasons in New York Giants history claimed another victim – middle linebacker Antonio Pierce.

The Giants on Thursday released the 31-year-old veteran who quarterbacked the defense for the past five years in a tenure that included four trips to the playoffs and a Super Bowl victory over the previously undefeated New England Patriots in February 2008.

Pierce's status with the team was put into question this season when he suffered a neck injury, forcing him to miss the final seven games of the season, a year in which the Giants surrendered 427 points.

Defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan and defensive line coach Mike Waufle were fired after the season and Pierce, who signed a $26 million contract as a free agent in 2005, was let go a month later.

Pierce also had one major off-the-field problem with the Giants. He drove a wounded Plaxico Burress to the hospital in November 2008 after the star receiver shot himself in a New York City nightclub and then took Burress' unlicensed gun back to New Jersey.

A grand jury opted not to indict him this past summer, but the incident, which led to Burress being sent to prison, was a burden for Pierce and the team for almost a year, even though Giants president John Mara openly defended Pierce.

For most of his time, Pierce was an outstanding football player for the Giants. He led the team in tackles three times, was a three-year captain, a Pro Bowler in 2006 and one of the inspirational leaders of the squad that did not have a losing season in his five years.

"When we brought him in here we were interested in A.P. for all of the dimensions he brought to the table his leadership qualities, his natural charismatic ability to rally the troops, he loved football, he's a very smart football player he took great pride in studying the tape and knowing what everybody did on defense," Coach Tom Coughlin said, adding Pierce "has worn that Giant uniform very, very proudly."

Pierce talked to Coughlin on Wednesday and met with general manager Jerry Reese on Thursday, when he was told that he was being let go.

"I appreciate everything the Giants organization has done for me," Pierce said. "I told both Tom Coughlin and Jerry Reese when I sat in front of them that I have no animosity, I have no anger. It's nowhere near that kind of situation. You might not agree with everything that's said, but you understand how the game is. It comes and goes."

Second-year pro Jonathan Goff started at middle linebacker after Pierce was hurt, although Chase Blackburn has also played the position for New York.

Pierce said winning the Super Bowl was his proudest moment from a team standpoint, while having the respect of his fellow players was his personal highlight.

"When I came to New York I wanted to be a dominant player and help this organization win a championship, which we did in Super Bowl XLII," Pierce said. "I wanted to be a leader and I did that and was voted a captain for three years and another two years when we didn't have captains and I was still out there. I wanted to be a guy who always led by example, a guy you could count on every day. You never had to worry if A.P. was going to be at practice or if he was going to show up for the game. I was going to be there."

Pierce still feels he can play, adding his neck injury should not be a problem if he wants to play a 10th NFL season.

"A.P. came right in and took the bull by the horns from day one and was very instrumental in helping the New York Giants win a lot of games and accomplishing a lot of our goals during his time here," Reese said. "He has been an outstanding Giant and we wish him nothing but the best for his family and future."

Pierce finished his final season with the Giants with 51 tackles (31 solo), three tackles for losses, a sack, two passes defensed, a forced fumble and a fumble recovery. His five-year totals with the Giants were 537 tackles (322 solo), seven sacks, six forced fumbles, seven fumble recoveries and four interceptions. Pierce also had 44 postseason tackles (28 solo).

An undrafted free agent, Pierce played his first four seasons with the Washington Redskins.

"I have nothing but very strong love for the New York Giants," Pierce said. "Obviously, I wanted to end it when my contract ended, but it didn't. It ended a year early. But I have no regrets. I have nothing to look back on and wish I had done it differently. Now it's time to look forward at the possibilities that I have."

GIANTS: WE'LL BE BACK IN 2010...

Well, the Saints defeated the Colts last 31-17 in the Super Bowl 44, and now the flukiest season in NFL history if finally , completely over! When I say "flukiest", im not just saying that because im a New York giants fan and they didn't make the playoffs, im saying that because its the truth. I say it as a football fan, not a Giants fan.

2009 gave us a NFL season where the Jets made the AFC Championship after beating the Bengles and Super Bowl favorite Chargers in the playoffs, the Patriots lost to the Ravens in the playoffs, The Steelers, probably 1 of the top 3 teams in the AFC, missed the playoffs, Giants miss the playoffs after Eli Manning passed for 4000 yds for the first time, and Steve Smith was the franchise's first Pro Bowl receiver, after 44 years, one of the NFL's most historically terrible teams, the Saints, beat the heavily favored Colts to win the Super Bowl, and last AND least, the Cowgirls won a playoff game! Now, show me 1 non-fluke event on that list...didn't think so!

So now that the Super Bowl has been played, and all the fake bandwagon fans found the Saints' dicks to ride until next year, this season is over and every team is 0-0 with a clean slate.

My New York Giants are regrouping, fixing the defense and coaching situations, and preparing to once again stomp their way back to the top of NFC, and then ultimatley the top of the NFL mountain! God, I can't wait! These 7 months of no NFL football will suck.

And on a final note, you fucking fake-ass, dick riding, so-called fans that are NOT from louisiana, STOP saying "who dat''! You sound SO fucking retarded!!!!!!!!!

GIANTS 4 LIFE!

UMENYIORA SAYS HE'LL QUIT IF HE DOESN'T START NEXT SEASON

COURTESY OF BIGBLUEINTERACTIVE.COM

Umenyiora Says He Will Quit Football If He Doesn’t Start: DE Osi Umenyiora said yesterday on WFAN that if he does not start in 2010, he will quit football.

“I’m not going to be a back up player, I can promise you that,” said Umenyiora. “I’ll stop playing football before I do that ever again. This has been just the worst offseason of my entire life. I can’t even think of a time when things were this bad during the offseason. You’re supposed to be relaxing, but I can’t relax because all I can think of is the things that took place last season, you understand? So for me it’s not something that I’m going to do. If I’m asked to come back there and do that then I’ll just stop playing football.”

Umenyiora was benched during the 2009 season in favor of DE Mathias Kiwanuka. After the season, one of Umenyiora’s biggest supporters, defensive line coach Mike Waufle, was fired. It’s obviously been an emotional period for the two-time Pro Bowl defensive end who struggled last season.

Umenyiora said he has wondered if his time with the Giants is over. “Did it go through my mind? Obviously, yes,” said Umenyiora. “Obviously you come through a situation where you’ve been here for a long time and you’ve won Super Bowls, you’ve been to the Pro Bowl a couple of times, then things like that start happening, you start being benched and they say you’re coming in on the third down rush, I think it almost seemed like the writing was on the wall at that particular time. I felt like I had worn out my welcome, because for certain people, no matter what happens, they’ll never take them out of the lineup, you understand what I mean? So I felt that way. I felt like maybe it was my last year because of that situation. But you never know man. I hope it’s not. I hope things can be rectified and things can be resolved. But we’ll see.”

According to The Daily News, unidentified Giants’ team sources have said the Giants have no intention of trading or releasing Umenyiora, who is currently signed through the 2012 season.

Umenyiora’s old teammate, Michael Strahan, thinks Umenyiora and the Giants will be fine. “He’ll be back, he’ll be a Giant, he’ll play extremely well next year, I have no doubt in that. Because I know he has too much pride and he has too much talent not to,” Strahan said. “Next season will be a year in which I expect him to do big things because now that knee injury will really be behind him and he can make the mark that he’s made in his previous seasons.”

“I have a lot of love for the team,” said Umenyiora. “I love the Giants. I’ve been there my entire career and I’d love to stay there. I’m under contract with them until 2012 so I can’t sit over here and say with any degree of confidence that I’m not going to be there next year.”

Umenyiora continues to insist he did not have a problem with former Giants’ defensive coordinator Bill Sheridan, who was fired after the season. “Me and Bill had that one problem, we talked about it, we figured it out,” Umenyiora said. “Throughout the whole season, me and Bill didn’t have another problem at all. It’s surprising to me sometimes when I read some of these things that we butted heads throughout the whole season and we were at odds, because after that one incident me and him didn’t have one problem the rest of the season…You can’t blame the defensive coordinator. Obviously he made some bad calls, but if he had the players in place I think you can make up for that. But as team we just didn’t play well at all.”